What emerged from the tests
A year ago, the 2025 MotoGP World Championship opened in Thailand with the absolute dominance of Marc Marquez, who could even afford to wait for his brother Alex, marking him to stay within the regulatory parameters regarding tire pressure before taking off in the final part of the race towards success. The three Ducatis of the Marquez brothers and Bagnaia created a gap and the inaugural GP was essentially the manifesto of the season, with the only difference being that Bagnaia did not then confirm himself as the third force, even collapsing to fifth place under the psychological blows of a year that did not follow the script imagined in winter by Bagnaia. 12 months later, the cards do not seem to have been particularly reshuffled, but there are a few more jokers – technical and emotional – in the deck for a more balanced 2026 World Championship. Below is our post-test ‘outlook’.
Read more Bezzecchi has no illusions: “Tests are very different from a race weekend”
Marc Marquez – The phenomenon from Cervera has the ball on his racket to reach double digits in career world titles, a goal that would also mean the definitive overtaking of Valentino Rossi, currently tied at nine with the 2025 title. The reigning world champion was fast and consistent in both Malaysia and Thailand, although he suffered a few too many crashes. Negotiations for the renewal with Ducati have already concluded on paper and with a positive outcome, although Marquez said he cannot sign a two-year deal until there are the necessary guarantees regarding his physical condition following the injury suffered in Mandalika a few months ago. Can only he lose the 2026 World Championship? Yes, as always, when Marc Marquez is at least at 80% of his potential, he is his own main opponent; if he manages to handle himself and ‘limit’ himself as he did in 2025, then double digits will be a reality.
Marco Bezzecchi – The Aprilia rider is the first challenger to Marc Marquez. Bezzecchi is at the center of the Noale manufacturer’s project, has already signed a renewal for 2027 and beyond, and in Buriram he did not hide, setting the track record and reeling off a race simulation that is certainly not just a gauntlet, but definitely a statement of intent. Psychologically, Bezzecchi has all the wind in his sails he could want; everything will depend on how much Aprilia has actually closed the gap with a Ducati that, in the genesis of the GP26, has learned from the technical stumbles encountered on the GP25.
Francesco Bagnaia – From having everything to lose – and to prove – in 2025 to being able to race with a completely clear mind. Pecco a year ago was crushed by tangible entities (Marc Marquez) and intangible ones (pressure, expectations), but this year he will race without worries since he has already defined his future with Aprilia. Furthermore, when Ducati rejects a rider, more often than not, that rider breaks through. It happened with Lorenzo in 2018 and with Martin in 2024. He won’t win the World Championship – unless Marc Marquez makes some sensational own goals – but he certainly won’t be a ghost of himself as happened for much of 2025.
Alex Marquez – The Gresini rider was very fast in his beloved Sepang and more than competitive in Buriram, but there won’t be room for four riders on the podium in Thailand, and he might be the one to stay off it. Alex Marquez will have the same bike as his brother and Bagnaia, a status more than deserved on the track thanks to a super 2025, but like Bagnaia, he will race with his bags packed because he will leave Ducati to go and earn the millions he has proven he deserves elsewhere.
Pedro Acosta – The Spanish rider finally sees the light at the end of the tunnel because his golden prison at KTM has its months numbered. The fact that the move to Ducati is finally around the corner will certainly give more peace of mind to Acosta, who has nevertheless almost always handled the technical disappointments provided by the RC16 with great professionalism. Acosta said the goal in Buriram is the top-5 and the analysis of the race pace highlights that objectively it would already be a great result. Confirming the fourth place in the riders’ standings obtained in 2025 will be very difficult for Acosta, but from 2027 Pedro will finally be able to aim for the title, and this season he will think primarily about preserving himself physically to arrive ready for his landing on the red planet.
Read more Di Giannantonio fired up for Buriram: “Confidence and clear ideas, very positive tests”
Fabio Quartararo – The same applies to El Diablo as it does to Acosta. Quartararo has been carrying the cross at Yamaha for years – he is paid handsomely to do so, given that in terms of salary alone he is the highest paid on the starting grid – and what emerged between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 fully justifies the ‘high treason’ of the 2021 world champion who will leave Yamaha to take on the role of ‘Captain Honda’ from 2027. If in 2025 Quartararo could drink from the fountain of hope regarding the V4 project, now he will only have to punch the clock while waiting to slam the door for the last time in Valencia in November. It will be long, it will be grueling, but it’s part of the game.
Jorge Martin and the other Aprilias – The 2024 world champion has the goal in 2026 to regain the feeling with a full season of racing in the hope of managing to stay away from injuries. His speed is not in question, so any flashes of brilliance will certainly not be a surprise. At Trackhouse, Raul Fernandez and Ai Ogura won’t be able to dream of fighting for promotion to the official team, but they are not to be underestimated at all.
The VR46 team – Fabio Di Giannantonio and Franco Morbidelli start 2026 under the radar, and for both, it’s an excellent starting point. For the team led on track by Pablo Nieto and Alessio Salucci, it will be very difficult to come out on top in the satellite team derby with the Gresini team – perfectly on equal terms because both teams have one factory bike and one satellite bike – but as already mentioned for Bagnaia, a light mind could be the extra weapon for the Tavullia squad.
The Hondas – The only ‘problem’ will be the competition between Joan Mir and Luca Marini for who will stay on board, given that the other three seats are already ‘guaranteed’ to Fabio Quartararo, Johann Zarco, and Diogo Moreira. The Japanese manufacturer reversed the trend in 2025 and in 2026 will be able to seek confirmation by continuing to grow without particular pressure while waiting to aim decisively for the top from 2027.
The Yamahas – Paradoxically, 2026 will be a transition year even more than 2025 was, and Quartararo’s departure will in some ways lower the tension within a headquarters where, since there is currently only rubble, things can only improve. Jorge Martin will arrive and Toprak Razgatlioglu is an intriguing bet; the current technical situation is indefensible and unacceptable for a manufacturer with Yamaha’s pedigree, but a 2026 in laboratory version without goals is the only viable path, and Andrea Dovizioso at the end of 2025 had already clearly anticipated that it would be so.
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