A Spa Spa headache
The qualifying for the Belgian Grand Prix confirmed much of what had been seen and reported on the eve. On the Spa-Francorchamps track, Formula 1 2026 particularly clearly shows its difficulties on the longest straights, where energy management becomes as decisive as, if not more than, the aerodynamic and mechanical qualities of the car.
With such a high sensitivity to the energy factor, lap time is not built only with the choices of charging and discharging the hybrid part, but the entire driving technique of the driver has a decisive influence precisely on the amount of energy available on the straights. What happens at Mercedes is the emblem of this, with Antonelli managing to fully exploit the potential of the Brixworth Power Unit, while Russell is forced to constantly play defense despite cornering speeds not so different from his teammate.
In general, Mercedes continues to prove to be the best package, with a chassis capable of properly exploiting the horsepower coming from the Power Unit, although, on a track so selective precisely on the engine front, the gaps have been less wide than expected at the start of the season, with a group that has definitely tightened up.
Tight group: more sensitivity to external factors
The wind and a certain sensitivity to conditions complicated Antonelli’s life especially in the first part of qualifying. It is a characteristic emerging for almost everyone: as the cars refine their aerodynamic qualities and work on increasingly precise operating windows, even a small environmental variation risks significantly altering the balance and the hierarchical scale of the cars.
Kimi needed a few attempts to adapt, but once he found the right path he made the difference. When he really started pushing, no one could get close to him anymore. The pole is therefore the result of the car best suited to the track, but also of a driver who continues to show remarkable capacity for technical reading and putting into practice what is asked of him by his engineer.
Verstappen capitalizes on Red Bull’s choices: the slipstream studied with the “energy plan”
Max Verstappen’s qualifying was also very good. Red Bull followed a particular path throughout the weekend in energy management, with harvesting and deployment phases often different from those chosen by other teams (see the passage at Pouhon). The Dutchman managed to exploit these decisions, also finding a good balance and excellent use of the new tire that earned him even the best middle sector.
This particular data, however, is also the result of teamwork: Hadjar’s slipstream, worth over two and a half tenths in the third sector, had an indirect advantage, namely allowing Verstappen to use more energy in the central part of the track knowing that his teammate’s “tow” would allow him to recharge quickly in the superclipping phase around Blanchimont. Max will therefore start from the front row and will be Antonelli’s first rival, although there remains some uncertainty related to the race: Red Bull’s setup and energy management worked on the single lap, but it remains to be seen what effect they will have on tire usage and degradation in long stints.
McLaren good in qualifying exploiting downforce and the five open-wing zones
Also excellent was the performance of McLaren and especially Lando Norris, who will however have to serve a 10-place grid penalty. At Woking they confirmed the choice seen throughout the weekend of a configuration with a lot of aerodynamic downforce, betting on the possibility of compensating for drag on the straights thanks to the five zones where active aerodynamics can be used. At Silverstone, the few zones where this system could be used favored low-drag setups and penalized cars with too much resistance.
Read more Hadjar: “We miss La Macarena, this is a step backwards”
At Spa, the abundant presence of these sections seems so far to show the opposite effect, with aerodynamic downforce generally rewarding in the sessions held so far. The McLaren solution nevertheless worked well in qualifying, allowing the car to be very effective in the curves of the central section without paying an unsustainable price on the straight. The question, once again, concerns the race, since Norris will be engaged in a comeback that could prove complicated on the overtaking front. Piastri still opaque.
Ferrari not caught unprepared on a very complicated track
Overall, the qualifying of Ferrari was also positive. The yellow flag realistically cost Charles Leclerc a position, although the practical difference will be practically nil, considering what normally happens on the first lap at Spa, with all positions in play for the entire Kemmel straight. The important data for the red team is having managed to keep pace with rivals on a track that mercilessly exposes the shortcomings of the Power Unit.
On the very long straights of the Belgian circuit, there is practically no chance to hide, and still managing to stay in the leading group already represents a good starting point. Not only that: Ferrari clearly gave up some performance in its best points in the central sector, then minimized the damage in the clipping and super clipping sections.
In all this, a good Leclerc still suffered about half a second from Antonelli on the straights, but the situation should be decidedly more balanced in the race. Also positive was Lewis Hamilton’s performance, arriving just a few thousandths behind Leclerc despite his car being hastily reassembled by mechanics before the session.
In the race, Ferrari should be decidedly more competitive compared to the single lap. The SF-26 seems to have a good overall setup and is particularly effective in sections where downforce is needed, best overall in the Fagnes esses, and the little step simulation with a lot of fuel seen has always shown very competitive times, making the reds at least candidates for the podium fight.
Kimi favored but fierce fight right behind him (and watch out for the first lap)
Strategies for the GP remain open, also because the Soft tire seems usable even in the race. Antonelli will start as the obligatory favorite, while Leclerc and Hamilton can fight for the podium with Verstappen and Russell. Before any calculation, however, the first lap must be overcome: from La Source to Les Combes, with these cars and with these differences in energy and speed, anything can really happen.
Read more Leclerc: “Come back in the race? Yes, maybe by fitting a Mercedes engine…”
