That Mercedes could be the benchmark at the start of 2026 was a rumor that had been circulating for months, but it was hard to imagine that in the first qualifying session it would inflict 8 tenths on the entire competition. The quality of the Brixworth power unit is clear to everyone, even if the gap inflicted on McLaren with the same engine disorients the opponents, inviting them to look elsewhere for the sources of the Silver Arrows’ advantage. Meanwhile, Red Bull celebrates a technical and sporting miracle, while Ferrari pays for energy management that is not yet under control.
Mercedes Dominance
It is 8 very heavy tenths of a second that Mercedes inflicts on the first of the pursuers, an advantage that manifests itself above all on the straight. The power of the Brixworth engine is felt, particularly on a fast track like the Australian one, which values a power unit concept based on efficiency rather than low-speed thrust. The benefits affect energy availability, since it is the internal combustion engine that performs most of the battery charging work. Adrian Newey also explained this regarding Honda’s tragic situation, stating that an underperforming thermal engine forces the use of the hybrid to make up for the lack of power, quickly finding itself short of energy.
The powerful Mercedes unit ensures an abundance of horsepower and energy, but on closer inspection, it is not enough to explain the dominance of the W17. With the same engine, McLaren’s delay is close to 9 tenths of a second, while Williams and Alpine are only ahead of Aston Martin and Cadillac. The good news for the opponents then, if you want to call it that, is that the Brackley team’s advantage does not stem solely from the power unit. There are possibilities to recover, but at the same time, it is an observation that disorients, without a clear and single explanation regarding Mercedes’ superiority.
Beyond the engine
The body language of the W17 tells of a well-balanced car, with good mechanical and aerodynamic qualities. The tire exploitation is also excellent, in which, according to George Russell, Mercedes benefited from a track about ten degrees colder than the previous day. These are all qualities that will come in handy in the race, a scenario in which the team showed good pace in Friday’s simulations.
In this Formula 1, however, the game is played above all on energy management strategies, which can make the difference even with the same engine. If the Silver Arrows reach the highest speeds on the second sector straight, it is also thanks to the great energy availability of the battery, the result of a better charging strategy than the opponents. It cannot be ruled out, however, that reduced consumption could also play a role, drawing attention to the effectiveness of the movable wings and the aerodynamic compromise chosen between cornering downforce and straight-line drag.
In the overwhelming pole in Melbourne, in any case, there is also a lot of George Russell, who already last year proved he has what it takes to aim for the title. Antonelli, conditioned by the time lost due to his own mistake in Q3, fulfills his task, completing an all-silver front row. Mercedes sends a strong message to the competition, but its first opponent could be reliability, having already had to replace a battery and a control unit on Russell’s car.
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Red Bull Feat
Max Verstappen did not show up for the fight for pole position, excluded in Q1 due to an accident apparently triggered by a technical problem. The RB22 locked the rear axle in turn 1, in a weekend where many errors or anomalies under braking continue to be observed, a sign of the collective difficulty in integrating regenerative braking with the hydraulic system. Taking charge of Red Bull, however, was Isack Hadjar, who conquered an incredible third position.
Red Bull Powertrains-Ford, in its absolute debut as an engine manufacturer, finds itself as the first of the pursuers behind Mercedes, even ahead of Ferrari. The result is even more extraordinary if you look at Racing Bulls’ double entry into Q3, also thanks to the excellent work of the Italian team. The Milton Keynes engine manufacturers make what is actually not easy at all seem easy: setting up an engine program in the most technically complex Formula 1 ever in just a few years and being competitive. Speaking of debutants, another notable result is that of Audi, immediately in Q3 with what 12 months ago was by far the last team on the grid.
Ferrari fumbles
Ferrari takes note of a gap from Mercedes larger than anticipated. The gap is too wide to attribute it solely to the track, which does not reward Maranello’s less powerful and more reactive power unit. The significant technical deficit, however, does not hide the flaws in the execution of the weekend, starting from the setup changes tried in the second free practice session, which proved to be too aggressive.
The Scuderia, then, fails to progress much during qualifying, hardly improving between Q2 and Q3, instead trimming half a second off the team’s best time from Q1, which was set on medium tires. By the admission of the drivers and Team Principal themselves, Ferrari fails to put everything together, a chronic shortcoming of recent years and partly justifiable now with the new regulations. Both Leclerc and Hamilton occasionally complain about a lack of battery charge, a sign of energy management problems, while Vasseur admits some difficulties in getting the tires into the correct operating window.
The Ferrari drivers are now betting everything on the start to maximize the result, with the awareness, however, that it is unlikely anyone will be able to trouble Russell and Antonelli. The greatest curiosity concerns the possibilities of overtaking in the race, on a track full of straights, but with the logic of the hybrid to be taken into account. The race will give the first major feedback on the new regulations, after qualifying has already issued its verdict: Mercedes starts ahead of everyone.
