In Miami, Mercedes is rediscovered as less dominant, downsized by massive updates from the competition, but despite everything finds itself in pole position thanks to an extraordinary Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Next to him will start Max Verstappen, with a Red Bull that updates have finally begun to tame. Ferrari is third with Charles Leclerc, with the consolation of having left McLaren behind and the awareness that the rain forecast for the race can be a significant variable.
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Antonelli returns
For Antonelli, the Miami weekend is increasingly taking on the characteristics of his first victory in China. After a messy Sprint, with a slow start followed by a lapse in attention, the Italian driver immediately redeems himself in qualifying, taking pole position with a super lap, half a second faster than the time set on Friday. The Italian puts the Mercedes ahead of everyone, despite the W17 being practically the same as in Melbourne, awaiting the developments planned for Canada.
The credit also goes to the team, able to improve compared to the Sprint both in hybrid delivery strategies and in setup. However, evidently, the changes are not enough for Russell, who is four tenths behind his teammate, justifying himself with poor harmony towards a track that has never suited him. Certainly, the scorching asphalt does not help the Englishman, causing tire temperatures to skyrocket with every correction, amplifying his difficulties.
The Red Bull leap
Antonelli thus finds the opportunity to further extend his lead in the standings. To do so, he will first have to hold his position at the start, with Max Verstappen ready to pounce from second place. The front row was a result hardly predictable on the eve for Red Bull, which is now beginning to recover the delay accumulated last year, when the world championship fight pushed to invest more hours in the wind tunnel on the 2025 project. During the break, the RB22 was lightened, also receiving important updates to the floor and bodywork, in addition to the inverted movable wing, which Mekies assures was in the works before Ferrari showed theirs.
Red Bull, however, has not only improved in weight and aerodynamic efficiency. Progress is also seen in balance and drivability, relegating Verstappen’s negative comments from March to a distant memory. This can be seen from the respectable pace shown by the Dutchman in clean air during the Sprint race, which bodes well for the Grand Prix. The risk of rain, moreover, certainly does not scare Max Verstappen, who has above-average wet sensitivity.
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Ferrari overtakes McLaren
Ferrari must settle for third place with Charles Leclerc. Just like in Friday’s qualifying, the SF-26 gains a lot in braking and cornering, but loses on the straight due to suboptimal energy management and a lack of horsepower from Mercedes-powered engines. However, the Red car is also missing something else, with Leclerc complaining of unpredictable behavior from one lap to another and generally worse feelings than on Friday, perhaps due to gusts of wind. Ferrari also continues not to make the same jump in Q3 that rivals manage, the exact causes of which remain difficult to identify, although tire exploitation and hybrid mapping are among the suspects. It will be important for Maranello to investigate the issue, in a Formula 1 where performances are starting to converge and overtaking is becoming more difficult, making it a priority to start at the front.
The big disappointment of qualifying is McLaren, a distant relative of the one victorious in the Sprint, perhaps more destabilized than others by the gusts of wind. Lando Norris is three tenths slower than on Friday, without launching any highlights throughout the session, only standing out for the correction in the chicane in Q2. Yet, after the win in the short race, the world champion praised the updated MCL40, more predictable and capable of inspiring greater confidence, making driving easier. McLaren, however, has shown what it is capable of, keeping hopes alive for the race and the rest of the season.
Watch out for the rain
The Grand Prix remains open to any verdict, especially in light of the concrete risk of rain, officially declared by the FIA. In this scenario, from this year the regulations allow teams to work on cars even under parc fermé conditions, but only to modify some setup parameters, mainly ride height and wing angles.
Basically, having more aerodynamic downforce is an advantage on the wet, but with 2026 cars the reasoning is not so straightforward. In case of rain, in fact, only the front wing can be opened and only in certain zones, which in Miami correspond to the start straight and the back straight. The power and torque of the electric part are also limited, while the Boost button is completely disabled, theoretically complicating overtaking. It is difficult to predict what kind of spectacle will result, but the hope is that at least a race can be witnessed, whose outcome is no longer as predictable as it would have been a month ago.
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