After gritting its teeth at Silverstone and Spa, in Hungary Ferrari finally finds a friendly track. Not only will the winding Hungaroring mask the shortcomings of the Maranello engine, but the SF-26 will be able to once again leverage its excellent aerodynamic qualities, especially in medium-speed corners. Mercedes, in any case, has all the cards in order to aim for victory again, strong with a car capable of managing rear degradation, which will be crucial in Budapest.
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Downforce matters more than the engine
The recent Spa weekend was all about energy management, an aspect that will be decidedly less critical in Hungary. On the one hand, the distance to cover with the throttle wide open is the shortest since the beginning of the year, with the exception of Monte Carlo, which dampens concerns about consumption. At the same time, the Hungaroring offers abundant braking opportunities to recharge the battery, allowing to push without too many second thoughts about hybrid management, especially in the last two sectors.
The picture is that of a track where one drives with the throttle wide open for a relatively short time, and where the engine does not work at high revs, as evidenced by average lap speeds below 210 km/h. At Ferrari, it is hoped that all this will help to make the lack of horsepower less impactful compared to Mercedes engines, thus maximizing the strengths of the chassis.
The SF-26 continues to be indicated as the car that generates the most aerodynamic downforce of all, a quality that will be very rewarding on the winding Hungarian track. In Budapest, after all, medium-speed corners reign supreme, those where championships are generally won. Not by chance, last year McLaren was the benchmark in these areas, while in 2026 Ferrari has shown a certain advantage over the competition in this speed range. All this sets excellent premises for the Prancing Horse’s weekend, present nonetheless on the eve of Monaco. The Principality’s event then concluded in favor of Mercedes, reminding us that the affinity between car and track alone is not a guarantee of victory, but impeccable preparation and execution are also needed.
Strategies to decipher
At the Hungaroring, moreover, not everything smiles upon the Prancing Horse. The many tight corners make the Hungarian track particularly severe for the rear axle, a characteristic that has not recently coincided with great performances from Ferrari. Conversely, on those occasions, Mercedes has stood out, as evidenced by victories in Montreal, Monaco, and Austria, thus giving the Silver Arrows the possibility to do well in Hungary too. In Budapest, furthermore, high thermal degradation is expected, due to high temperatures and the compounds selected by Pirelli, which offers the softest in the range: C3, C4, and C5.
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Everything suggests a strategically lively multi-stop race, as is traditional in Hungary, although it is not so obvious. The limited difficulties in managing the battery could standardize energy delivery and recovery strategies among the various teams, with a general convergence that always tends to complicate overtakes. If this were the case, preserving track position advantage would become crucial, encouraging one-stop strategies. The important thing will be to understand this as soon as possible during the weekend, in order to adequately set up the car.
Mercedes-Ferrari at the top, but watch out for Aston Martin
The pre-race prediction sees Mercedes and Ferrari ahead of everyone, although it is not clear who will be the favorite. Both the W17 and the SF-26 have the tools to aim for the big win, which is why much will depend on the execution of the weekend, particularly with the setup. There is also great curiosity to see what McLaren will be able to do, as they will receive their first upgrade package since Canada and should straighten out the concept of the MCL40. The same goes for Red Bull, coming off rather inconsistent performances, which will bring back the Macarena movable wing in Hungary with the corrections made after the incidents in Austria and Silverstone.
At least on the technical front, however, there will also be great attention on Aston Martin. The Silverstone team will introduce its first real developments since the start of the season, which represent only the beginning of a long climb back to the top. It is difficult, if not impossible, to expect Stroll and Alonso to fight at the top of the standings, but it will still be interesting to see what concepts the aerodynamic department led by Adrian Newey will have adopted from the competition and if it will propose new ones. It is probable that the updated AMR26 will have something of Ferrari and Mercedes, benchmarks of this championship, and that in Hungary they could once again provide a top-level duel.
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