Great champions know how to seize opportunities when they arise. Antonelli proves he also has this quality, taking advantage of the Safety Car to capitalize on his superiority in a weekend where he was the fastest from the first to the last lap. George Russell, on the other hand, wastes it, with a Mercedes that still boasts by far the best car, but fears seeing its advantage vanish upon returning from the break. Everything will depend on how much Ferrari and McLaren can recover through development, also taking advantage of any changes to the regulations.
Antonelli world championship leader
Antonelli’s race does not start in the best way, sixth on the first lap after starting from pole. The start is the only mistake in the Italian’s weekend, this time not due to incorrect turbo management, but rather due to the aggressive clutch release, transmitting too much power to the wheels until they spun. Kimi, however, remains clear-headed, moving up to third position, and then taking advantage of the timely entry of the Safety Car to make his pit stop. It is impossible to say whether without the help of luck the Italian would have managed to overtake Piastri and Russell, but there is no doubt that at Suzuka he was the fastest on track. In the three laps in clean air before the neutralization, Antonelli recovers 1.7 seconds on his teammate, while in the second stint he laps with surprising consistency, completing eight consecutive laps with the same times, with a precision of a tenth of a second.
The new championship leader beats George Russell on a track whose many fast corners should have favored the Briton. Throughout the weekend, the English driver is never at ease with the Mercedes, so much so that he made some setup changes before qualifying, which later proved counterproductive. Russell is also unlucky with the Safety Car, but unlike the Italian, he has much to blame himself for. At the restart, George slides on the exit of the last chicane, also finding himself immediately short of energy and handing the position to Hamilton. A little later, Leclerc also takes advantage of an anomalous charging moment for his Mercedes, for which it is unclear if Russell is responsible, erroneously discharging the battery. These are all mistakes that Mercedes can no longer afford, with Ferrari and McLaren now ready to take advantage.
McLaren grows more than Ferrari
In his first participation in a Grand Prix in 2026, Oscar Piastri gives McLaren its first podium. The Australian makes an excellent start, also managing to defend his position against Leclerc’s charging Ferrari. The Melbourne driver is then right to believe in the possibility of keeping Russell’s Mercedes behind, so much so that it leads one to wonder if, without the Safety Car, victory would not have been possible. It is a demonstration of how, in this Formula 1, traveling in clean air is still an advantage, rewarding those most skilled in qualifying and at the start.
McLaren, however, also shows excellent pace, even exceeding expectations. For the first time this year, the limiting factor for the tires at Suzuka is thermal degradation, accentuated by a particularly hot track, fluctuating between 37 and 30°C. As in past years, the papaya cars prove to be effective in this area, while suffering more from graining, which was evident in the first two races. Woking’s progress, however, also stems from energy management. It was not the supply of any updated software that made the difference, but rather the development of better strategies for battery use, now knowing the behavior of the Mercedes power unit better.
Ferrari also celebrates another podium, although without maximizing the starting advantage this time. On the contrary, as already observed in China, the SF-26s seem to struggle with energy management in the first laps, only to recover once the pace and battery usage stabilize. Leclerc, however, penalized by the Safety Car, succeeds in finishing ahead of the Mercedes, showing a slightly better pace than Piastri in the final stages. The Monegasque’s only shortcoming in Japan is the failure to adapt to the new way of driving in qualifying, however frustrating this may be.
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Vasseur and “the new championship”
Formula 1 now takes a month’s break from racing. The cancellation of the April races comes at the worst time for Mercedes, which hoped to capitalize on its technical advantage in this first part of the season. Vasseur maintains that in Miami “a new championship will begin”, hoping that development can challenge the hierarchies. Aerodynamic updates will play an important role, especially for McLaren, the only team to have raced so far with the same package from the first Barcelona tests. Equally relevant will be everyone’s efforts to reach the minimum weight and, above all, the development of energy management strategies, among the most important elements of these regulations.
As for Ferrari, there is also the opportunity to gain ground on the engine side. In Maranello, there are no great hopes for the new compression ratio verification tests from June 1st, while it is hoped to fall within the ADUO window, which would allow for the introduction of an updated engine starting from Canada or Barcelona, depending on the FIA’s decision. Red Bull also aims to develop the power unit, although the RB22’s problems also stem from the chassis. The priority in Milton Keynes will be at least to emerge from the midfield battle, currently very crowded with the various Racing Bulls, Haas, Audi, and Alpine.
Regulations under discussion
The evolution of the balance of power is also linked to any corrective measures that the FIA and teams will make to the regulations. Race dynamics are not particularly a problem, given that in many cases positions are contested under braking and in corners, providing overtakes worthy of the name. There continue to be position exchanges on the straights with an artificial aftertaste, which were also present with the old DRS. If anything, action must be taken as soon as possible on clipping, the cause of large speed differences, which Bearman’s accident proved to be very dangerous.
For qualifying, however, changes are urgently needed to allow drivers to push without too many second thoughts about energy management, at least in the technical sections. Hamilton’s comments are interesting, according to which at Suzuka it was possible to push until turn 6, after which management logic came into play. This is no coincidence, given that in the first sector the FIA had removed the obligation to use the electric motor at full power in full-throttle sections. Decoupling throttle input from battery usage could be the right way to restore emphasis to qualifying and the drivers’ flair. The only certainty is that many things could change in April, one more reason for Antonelli to enjoy a whole month as the championship leader.
