Thailand Test, race pace analysis: Marquez stands out, but Aprilia is close

Towards the first race weekend

The second and final day of testing – which took place yesterday in Thailand, on the Buriram track that will open the 2026 MotoGP season this weekend – provided several interesting pieces of information ahead of the start of the World Championship. Riders and teams indeed engaged in race pace simulations, beginning to reveal at least partially what the performance levels might be in this first phase of the season. Naturally, these data should be taken with a grain of salt, both due to the different number of laps each rider completed and the differences in terms of fuel load and track conditions at the time the simulation was carried out. However, some valid indications can still be drawn.

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Marquez the best, then Ogura emerges

Among the riders we decided to consider, the fastest in terms of average pace was – for a change – Marc Marquez. The reigning Ducati world champion completed only six laps before crashing and ending his tests early, but he settled on an 1:30.0 pace that was unreachable for everyone.

Surprisingly, the one who came closest to the pace of the red #93 was Ai Ogura, with the Trackhouse team’s Aprilia RS-GP26. The Japanese rider counts the Buriram track as one of his favorite tracks on the calendar, but his 12-lap race simulation (thus lasting twice as long as Marc Marquez’s) certainly represents a very encouraging sign for the entire Aprilia family. Ogura was indeed extremely consistent, always staying within a range of 4 tenths: 1:30.3 was his highest time, 1:29.9 his lowest. When looking at a race simulation, the consistency of times is always a piece of data to keep in high regard.

Bezzecchi convincing, Bagnaia consistent

Smiles for the Noale manufacturer are also brought by Marco Bezzecchi, who was the only rider to simulate an almost full race in a single stint, completing 20 laps out of the 26 scheduled for the Thailand GP. The Rimini rider’s pace was impressive in the first 11 laps, when he never went above 1:30.2. Then, however, his lap times began to rise, until he completed the last six laps of the ‘race’ consistently at 1:31.0. Overall, Bezzecchi’s ‘run’ averaged 1:30.454, a race pace that is a tenth slower than the one simulated by Marc Marquez in 2025, when the #93 performed a 23-lap stint.

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Further back in this simulation we find Francesco Bagnaia, who completed a nine-lap stint in which his average time was 1:30.679. This is a pace almost identical to that achieved with the Honda by Joan Mir, who completed a 10-lap stint. While the Spaniard’s times increased lap after lap, starting at 1:30.1 and finishing at 1:31.0, Bagnaia was much more consistent, always oscillating between 1:30.5 and 1:30.7, with the sole exception of the opening lap finished in 1:31.1. Therefore, the impression that emerges is much better for the #63 compared to the 2020 world champion.

Yamaha’s Abyss

Finally, the race simulations of Pedro Acosta – for KTM – and Fabio Quartararo, with Yamaha, also deserve a mention. The Frenchman, with his 10-lap stint, testifies to all of Yamaha’s difficulties, losing an average of three tenths per lap to Joan Mir.

Acosta’s simulation was more peculiar: the Spaniard was the only one among the riders considered to perform two stints of a certain length. The first, of seven laps, returned a pace of 1:30.5; the second, of a full 13 laps, was instead four tenths slower. The impression is therefore that KTM can battle with Honda for the role of third force, while the two Italian manufacturers – Ducati and Aprilia – confirm themselves as the queens of this pre-season. Now we just have to wait for the verdicts of the first GP of the year.

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