Mercedes does not sleep peacefully despite Kimi Antonelli’s 50-point lead over Lewis Hamilton. The Brackley team has not yet played any role in the development race, while the competition has made giant strides, significantly closing the technical gap seen at the start of the year.
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Except for some specific updates on low-load tracks – and not always effective, as happened for example in Belgium – the W17 has been practically devoid of significant developments since Canada. In Brackley, the next expected development package has been postponed several times, which should be introduced alongside the Asian triple-header despite attempts to bring it forward by one or two races.
W17 more complete at the start, but with less development margin
Mercedes adopted a strategy diametrically opposed to Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull in terms of aerodynamic development. The plan was to debut in Australia with as complete a car as possible, accepting a gradual evolution as a compromise. A considerable risk considering that, with a new regulation, the development margin is really very wide, especially in the first year.
“From an aerodynamic point of view, the rate of improvement per week in the wind tunnel is about six or seven times higher than last year. We are talking about about half a second every two months: a huge leap” explained Mercedes’ technical director, James Allison, on the Nu Silver Arrows podcast.
“We did everything possible to have a competitive car at the start of the year and, fortunately, it went well. But one of the fundamental aspects of our development strategy was the internal decision, regarding aerodynamics and chassis, to postpone development timings by several weeks compared to the past. So we decided to follow a plan that left practically no margin for error. As a result of this plan, we managed to get the maximum possible right away with the first car and at the first race.”
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“Other teams did not arrive with a result so close to the target and, consequently, updated their car earlier by developing the first package even before the debut race – added Allison – We instead reached an immediate performance peak, but with all energies exhausted. We had to work intensively to get more from the car, but now we are a bit out of phase. So our development plan, being ahead at the start, now has a delay of one or two races compared to the update pace of others“.
Mercedes’ fears: half-second improvements every two months
Although having a very wide margin in the first Grands Prix, the rivals – Ferrari first and foremost – have increasingly narrowed it thanks to a much steeper growth curve than in previous years. And this puts pressure on Mercedes, which cannot afford to make any mistakes on the next development package despite needing to bring it forward.
“Judging by the lap times we are seeing, it seems that everyone improves by about half a second every two months. Consequently, being out of phase with the development cycle means that if you have half a second margin, a single development cycle can erase it. And that is a bit scary – said Allison – At the same time, however, you know you have potential and you have to understand when you will be able to deploy it“.
“Our strategy is simply to ensure that the next update we bring will restore the initial status, the level of excellence we reached at the start of the season. We just have to get through this difficult moment when others introduce all their novelties“.
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