Andrea Kimi Antonelli secures a pole position that perfectly summarizes his technical and analytical skills. The Mercedes driver makes the difference on one of the most complete tracks of the world championship, putting to use what he has learned about managing energy and how to approach qualifying. McLaren is also growing, while Ferrari pays for the limits of the package, in addition to its own shortcomings.
Read more Antonelli: “This pole is better than the other one. The start? The team told us to stay calm”
Antonelli’s growth
Antonelli’s second consecutive pole position is even more special than the first, achieved on a track much more demanding than Shanghai and with his teammate free from technical problems. The Italian driver’s talent has never been in question, but the difference is that now he manages to put everything together. His growth stems from the correct reading of the points where to push, both from the point of view of driving and battery management. “I managed to maximize the grip and also the battery, with which for example George struggled more”, comments Antonelli.
The Italian deserves credit for having saved energy at the right time, then exploiting it on the straight: “In my lap I gained a tenth on the straights compared to him, but it was also because of the driving style, which is a bit different”. It is confirmation that Kimi has learned not to overdo it too much, after an error in the use of the accelerator in qualifying in Australia had disrupted his energy management strategy.
Where Antonelli is maturing, however, is also in his approach to the weekend. On Thursday, the Italian explained that starting from China he understood he had to choose the corners in which to dare more, evaluating the margins of error against the potential gain. At Suzuka, for example, the Italian stands out at the last chicane, losing instead in the first sector, where he recognizes he still needs to improve: “Compared to me Russell still makes a bit of a difference in the fast corners”. There will be time to work on it, but not before having competed in a race that has the lead of the standings at stake. The opportunity is tempting, with Russell never really at ease with the W17 in Japan, struggling with oversteer exacerbated by the changes made after the final practice.
Ferrari fails to improve
There is disappointment at Ferrari, which for the third consecutive time fails to improve in Q3 despite an encouraging start. Leclerc does not hide his irritation, not so much for the slide at the Spoon, but for the time suddenly lost on the straight compared to his own best partials. The SF-26 suffers from an undeniable delay in power and energy management from Mercedes, but the team still has responsibilities in failing to optimize everything. On the one hand, Charles still has to get used to the new way of driving in this Formula 1, where, as frustrating as it may be, one must not risk or accelerate too early, so as not to confuse the battery software. On the other hand, the impression is that the energy management logic is less flexible than the competition, failing to adapt to the evolution of the driving style during qualifying to understand when to push with the electric motor and when not to.
Looking at the sectors, however, where Ferrari improves the least in Q3 is in the first sector, the most technical part of the track, in which Leclerc shaves off just over a tenth compared to Q2, against Antonelli’s three and a half tenths and Piastri’s almost half a second. It will be up to the Prancing Horse to understand if the Monegasque driver was already very close to the limit in the second elimination or if he left something on the table, perhaps in the preparation of the tires. In Q3, with the asphalt 4°C colder than in Q1, in his two attempts Leclerc takes to the track last and second to last, without being able to freely manage the pace to recharge the battery and warm up the tires.
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| First sector improvements Q2-Q3 [s] | |
| Antonelli | -0.351 |
| Russell | -0.482 |
| Piastri | -0.485 |
| Norris | -0.239 |
| Hamilton | -0.269 |
| Leclerc | -0.123 |
McLaren Leap
Nevertheless, Ferrari can rejoice in the best absolute partials in the first sector, confirming the good aerodynamic load of the SF-26, as well as the progress on balance compared to Friday. All this, however, is not enough to contain McLaren, third and fifth respectively with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. The world champion pays for the delay in preparation due to the time lost in practice because of technical problems, without which it is reasonable to assume that the papaya lineup could have monopolized the second row. In particular, the team was again forced to replace the Briton’s battery, which had already prevented him from taking part in the Chinese Grand Prix, raising some concerns about the reliability of the Mercedes power unit.
In the race, it will be hard for McLaren to keep the Ferraris at bay, which in addition to having an advantage at the start, boast a better pace. For Lando Norris it will be even more difficult, as his setbacks in practice did not allow him to simulate the long-distance rhythm. In any case, regardless of the final result, it is already an excellent sign for the team to see the progressive reduction of the gap from Mercedes, which went from 8 tenths in Melbourne and 5 in Shanghai to 3 and a half tenths in Suzuka. The improvements are evident, in the setup choices and especially in the energy management strategies. The slow understanding of the Brixworth power unit is revealing all its sensitivities, helping to understand in which moments it is more profitable to push with the hybrid part, the main key to understanding this Formula 1.
Red Bull Crisis
If McLaren improves, the same cannot be said for Red Bull, which has moved another 2 tenths further away from Mercedes compared to Australia. The one most in difficulty is Verstappen, struggling against a car that understeers heavily mid-corner and tends to bottom out in the fast sections. It’s hard to say if the new bodywork brought to Suzuka, available only to the Dutch champion, contributes to this, but it certainly wasn’t a step forward. Hadjar, on the other hand, with the non-updated RB22, is eighth, behind Gasly’s Alpine and ahead of Bortoleto’s excellent Audi. Also noteworthy is the tenth place of Arvid Lindblad with Racing Bulls, who deserves credit for being close to Red Bull with the same engine.
The Saturday picture, however, could change in the race. Overtaking will be possible, which is why the long-distance pace will weigh more than the rhythm expressed in qualifying, despite moving towards a one-stop strategy. After the checkered flag, it will instead be time for reflection, with a month’s break available to think about any corrections to be made to qualifying, which continues to hold back the drivers’ exuberance.
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