Antonelli impressive, in contention for pole: strong front, good brakes and soft rear
The last free practice session changes the cards compared to Friday. Mercedes brings a profoundly revised setup to the track and arrives not only close but even ahead of the Ferraris with a Kimi Antonelli who seemed incredibly at ease and fast in the narrow streets of the Principality in the last hour on track. The rear of the W17 has been significantly softened, and the Brackley engineers have also worked a lot on braking balance, as well as giving more importance to a front end that in the first two sessions seemed particularly sluggish and unresponsive. The heat of this Saturday helps a lot in this last aspect, with a car balance that spontaneously shifts towards the front and from then on Kimi takes care of it. We say this with a bit of surprise and aware that obviously nothing official has happened yet, but it’s striking to see Antonelli already in such good form, even compared to a Russell who is fourth but doesn’t seem to have even half of the young Italian’s feeling at the moment and who in this session was almost 8 tenths behind. Mistakes are around the corner and for Antonelli the road is still very long, but the leap forward in performance for him and Mercedes thanks to the stronger front, soft rear and great braking control is evident and at this point the Italian’s name cannot be omitted from the list of drivers in contention for pole.
Leclerc potentially close but still with brake problems
For Charles Leclerc, the clear favorite on the Monaco track, the sensations from the data are clear: there is speed in the corners, there is performance all over the track except when it comes to attacking the brakes. Problems are already visible at Massenet, but especially at the harbor chicane and then at the braking point of the second S of the swimming pool, the data clearly shows how the Monegasque struggles to stop the car, driving “on eggshells” for a few meters before being able to attack the corner. From what emerged, the problem concerns the heating of the rear brake discs and the brake distribution between pure brakes and the regenerative part, where Leclerc and his engineers cannot find the right balance, finding themselves at the entry of the most important braking zones with cold rear brakes and with the rear starting to behave unstably under braking, taking away confidence from the driver. The impression is that the performance is generally there on the car from a mechanical and chassis point of view, but confidence in Monaco is everything and for Ferrari solving this problem is an absolute priority, because from there Leclerc can find a concrete chance to fight for pole position himself.
Hamilton the third in the fight, only suffers in medium-speed corners, much better on brakes
The third driver candidate to fight for pole position is Lewis Hamilton, still fast and at ease, although 3 tenths behind Antonelli himself (and 4 thousandths behind Leclerc). The data also in Hamilton’s case speaks very clearly: there is speed in the slow sections and compared to Leclerc, braking confidence is significantly better. The problem for the seven-time World Champion are the few medium-speed corners of the circuit, especially in the first sector, such as Saint Devote and then at the top of the hill, Massenet and the casino. The Briton also seems to have some confidence issues (or perhaps he was just conservative to avoid incidents like Bearman) and in that section he accounted for almost the entire gap to Antonelli, then staying in line for the rest of the lap (including braking).
If Leclerc finds brake balance, he’s the favorite, but it will be a fight (of three?)
To sum up, if Ferrari manages to find an acceptable braking balance for Leclerc, then the Monegasque becomes the number 1 favorite for pole in his home Grand Prix, but certainly not with a margin: the fight seems to be a three-way one, with his teammate and especially with Antonelli. At the moment Russell and Verstappen seem a step behind but in Monaco anything can happen and the next will be one of the most exciting sessions of the year. We will see who comes out on top.
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