The 2026 Chinese Grand Prix helped clarify much of what had been attempted to be intuited during testing and “glimpsed” in Melbourne on a technical level, both regarding the competitiveness of each team and for some further points of analysis on these new regulations. We cannot but start from the splendid victory of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who finally puts everything together and is able to capitalize on George Russell’s only brief difficulty in Saturday’s qualifying, bringing home pole position and his first career victory. If from the outside Antonelli’s might have seemed like little more than a parade, it should be emphasized that the credit for this belongs precisely to the very young Italian, who first of all did all the right things at the right time: he remained calm at the start even when Hamilton passed him and closed the door on Leclerc perfectly. He then retook the lead of the race at the first opportunity, but without overdoing it. After that, he imposed his pace on the race, fending off without too many problems the long-distance attacks that Russell tried to launch at him once he had freed himself from the Ferraris. Surely the Englishman had suffered more in terms of tires during the numerous overtakes he was forced into after the Safety Car, but once free he gave the impression of wanting to attempt a comeback even on his teammate, while Antonelli was able to shut the door in his face with a series of fast laps, including the fastest overall, which Russell tried to beat on the last lap in a clear attempt to send a message to the team and his teammate, but without success. Very well done Antonelli then, and from now on it will be very interesting to understand if this victory represents a pivotal point of his growth, eliminating some errors due to the enormous pressure on him and giving him the possibility to fight for the title already this year.
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Mercedes engine advantage: it materializes mainly in the derating phase
The Shanghai track then allowed for some further evaluation of the advantage Mercedes has over its pursuers and especially over Ferrari, clearly the second force in the championship at this moment. Red Bull appears decidedly too far behind from all points of view, with a chassis that, surprisingly, seems to be less competitive than the new Power Unit and that expresses so little downforce that it shows very high numbers on the straight, mixing the perception of the real strength of the power unit. McLaren for its part appears to be the third force, able to challenge Ferrari in qualifying thanks to the Mercedes power unit, but not as much in the race due to tire management that is not particularly brilliant, with an average insufficient downforce. Furthermore, if the two papayas don’t even take part in the race, there is little left to comment on them. Ferrari showed what appears to be the best chassis, with the most aerodynamic downforce and a suspension package that is decidedly effective in both slow and fast corners. Mercedes has a chassis package that still appears very close to that of the red car, with a car setup that is very gentle on the tires, so much so that once the hard compound was fitted for a few laps, Antonelli and Russell clearly struggled in the attempt to bring the tire to the ideal temperature. What makes a huge difference at the moment is clearly the Power Unit. Unfortunately, the quality of the data transmitted by the Federation during the Chinese weekend was poor to say the least and much work was deductive, but the impression we had is that the Mercedes unit certainly has plenty of pure horsepower, but that it expresses a great advantage when all cars enter the so-called “derating” phase (i.e., clipping, super clipping etc.). In practice, during the power cut phases due to the progressive discharge of the battery, the Mercedes engine has the possibility to stabilize at a higher level of power output compared to the competition, creating a decidedly wide differential in that specific phase. If normally the differences seen are a few kilometers per hour and generate a few hundredths of a chronometric difference, this gap in the derating phase means that at the most critical points of energy management (in Shanghai the long straight up to turn 15) the differences become very wide, generating entire tenths of a gap in a very short time. We spoke with an engineer from a team and he confirmed this impression, also adding that it is not particularly easy from the outside to understand how Brixworth managed to create such an efficient system. On a single lap, Mercedes gained practically all of its advantage in these sections, with Ferrari decidedly better in the corners, while in the race the situation became more homogeneous, with an average gain for Antonelli and Russell over Hamilton and Leclerc of at least 1 tenth even in the first two sectors of the track. However, we must not forget that the long and exciting duel between the two Ferrari standard-bearers certainly left a significant mark on their tires, making them slower even in the sections most favorable to them. This also shows that the chassis advantage of the SF-26 is indeed present at the moment, but with margins that are in any case very small and that the enormous margins of development will in any case heavily determine the course of the season in this sense.
Hamilton rediscovered in a serene and respectful battle with Leclerc
The Chinese trip to Maranello brings two pieces of good news and one bad. The negative one is clearly the gap from Mercedes, at times almost a second per lap at the end of the race (where the gap opens up more due to the characteristics of the Power Unit). A gap that is not easy to close during the season, even if, from the information gathered, a certain air of confidence is still breathed in the corridors of the GeS, with the awareness that the season should present a series of important opportunities. The good news is however the already mentioned chassis quality of the car, and, above all, a decidedly rediscovered and combative Lewis Hamilton, both on track and politically, with a series of interviews where he certainly didn’t mince words on the Mercedes Power Unit issue. Beyond the words, however, Hamilton proved to have returned to a high level directly with facts, with a good race on one of his favorite tracks, in which he put himself ahead of his teammate who, instead, has never digested the Chinese track. The battle between the two standard-bearers of the prancing horse was the best entertainment of the race, and a true lesson in “racecraft”, with a very tight but always respectful and fair fight, without ever overdoing it. Absolutely right, it wouldn’t even need to be said, the pit wall’s choice to leave them free to race, being only the second race of the season and with positions practically defined, between the Mercedes too far ahead and the rest of the pack too far behind. Any team order would have only created more ill-feeling than positivity. Leclerc himself, still smiling and who declared himself sincerely happy for Hamilton’s first podium, testifies to a certain serenity, even if, starting from the next race in Japan, the challenge will probably begin to become more serious to try to (re)establish a certain hierarchy in the team.
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A regulation that is right chassis-wise, but hungry for corrections on the engine side
To conclude, the Chinese race also showed a certain improvement in the quality of the duels on track. The reality seems to be that of a chassis-aerodynamics package that is actually particularly centered: smaller and lighter cars, with less downforce and with smaller tires, which leave room for drivers to work on the limit and to follow each other closely for several laps. The problems arise, obviously, under the hood. The electrical part is indeed 50% of the total power, but given the reduced availability it translates into a bottleneck for the entire performance, with a total specific weight that assumes much larger percentages. Leclerc’s phrase after qualifying deserves a separate in-depth analysis but the discipline of the single lap really seems to be the one most put in difficulty by the new rules. The changes to be discussed for introduction as early as Japan have been postponed to April, taking advantage of the cancellation of the races in the Middle East to further deepen the discussion, a choice that appears absolutely reasonable. In the meantime, we will see what happens at Suzuka, with a first part of the track where chassis qualities will be fundamental, but also with the very long section from Spoon to the triangle chicane which will present quite a few problems on the energy front.
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