The Ferrari dilemma to beat Mercedes

From Monza
Speed on the straight continues to be the main key to understanding the Monza event even with the new cars. The updated engine pushes Ferrari close to Mercedes, but not enough to completely close the gap on the straight. The Prancing Horse could find the missing tenths by working on the balance, just like McLaren, which is struggling in areas where it had excelled in Zandvoort. Finally, Antonelli is working with the race in mind, for which many position changes and good comeback opportunities are expected.

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Ferrari in tow of Mercedes

Mercedes leads the first day of track action, with George Russell just a tenth ahead of Ferrari’s Leclerc. The balance can still tip either way, depending on how teams optimize the many variables of their packages in a Monza very different from the past. Surprisingly, in Brianza the new cars prove faster in corners than the previous ones, thanks to active aerodynamics that allow maintaining a good level of downforce, then shedding it with wing openings on the straight.

Speed on the straight, however, continues to dominate and is currently where Mercedes holds the main advantage. Ferrari tries to defend itself with the new updated engine, whose track debut confirms progress in drivability, but especially in power. It is difficult to quantify exactly the horsepower increase, as straight-line speeds are heavily influenced by electric power delivery strategies, still very different among teams. Currently, Mercedes prioritizes the straights of the first two sectors, while Ferrari pushes the power unit on the return straight, waiting to see if there will be convergence in qualifying.

In any case, Ferrari will consider reducing some aerodynamics to gain a few more kilometers per hour on the straight, an operation that, however, risks conflicting with another need of the SF-26. Lewis Hamilton, in fact, complained about the car’s balance and drivability, problems that certainly do not help tire performance or energy management. In Maranello, they will try to find a compromise overnight, aiming to capitalize on the SF-26’s improvement margins.

The keys for qualifying and race

The outcome of the next two days will also depend heavily on execution. Free practice highlighted a great effectiveness of the slipstream effect despite active aerodynamics, which will reward those who manage to position themselves at the right distance from the car ahead in qualifying. Another key issue will be the tires, on an asphalt that on Friday exceeded 50°C, making it very easy to overheat them even within a single lap. This is good news for Ferrari, which had struggled with the opposite problem in Zandvoort, failing to heat them up in time for the start of the flying lap.

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Qualifying, however, could have relative importance. The big differences in energy management will lead cars to have different speeds at different points on the track during the race, which will translate into great overtaking opportunities. The impression is that tire degradation is contained, suggesting a one-stop race, but with all three compounds in play. Not by chance, during FP2 the top teams simulated long-run pace with different compounds, making it difficult to draw a hierarchical picture. Ferrari’s pace on softs was in line with Russell’s on hards, while McLaren’s simulation was too short to draw conclusions.

McLaren struggling, Kimi looks to the race

The team that won the last two Grands Prix starts the Italian weekend with some difficulties. The good news for McLaren is that the new inverted mobile wing works correctly, but the MCL40 continues to lose time on the straight, confirming pre-race fears. The world champions admit they have work to do on energy management, but improvement margins also concern the chassis. At Monza, in fact, the papaya cars suffer in high-speed corners, the same where they had made the difference in Zandvoort and Budapest. Finally, McLaren stood out for experiments conducted during the race simulation, in which Norris and Piastri drove one in the slipstream of the other, even swapping positions to evaluate the slipstream effect and how to optimize energy management for attacking or defending.

The situation is decidedly critical at Red Bull, where Verstappen complains about the lack of downforce in fast corners, poor grip in slow corners, and a ‘bouncing’ car. The Milton Keynes team stands as a dividing line between the top teams and the midfield, led by Racing Bulls, also now equipped with the inverted mobile wing. Challenging the Faenza team are Audi, Haas, finally equipped with updates, and Alpine, whose developments are now also present on Franco Colapinto’s car.

Finally, there is the home idol, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, called to build his comeback from the back. The Italian has worked mainly with the race in mind, completing a simulation of 19 laps on hards. His task for qualifying will be to offer a slipstream to Russell, which could tip the balance in favor of Mercedes. Ferrari permitting.

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