The SF-26 grows, no disappointment
The qualifying for the Dutch Grand Prix was fought as expected, although with a major absence from the fight for pole, namely Ferrari. The session conditions, about 18 degrees air temperature with even a start of rain towards the end of Q3, made warming up the soft tire one of the critical points of performance. Almost all teams, in fact, initially did 2 warm-up laps, with McLaren and Mercedes able to show in the last sector that, by giving a lot of energy to the tire, they managed to bring the compound into the correct operating window even with a single lap, albeit having to push hard. For the Maranello team this proved impossible and the dropping temperature during the session (the asphalt lost almost 5 degrees between Q1 and Q3) made the task too difficult for Leclerc and Hamilton who had to settle just for the third row.
The floor delivers what was sought, qualifying performance comes from elsewhere
The new floor on the SF26 works, and Hamilton also found the correct balance after the Sprint, but it is not an upgrade aimed at correcting the two defects the car has carried since the start of the year. One is the usual engine issue: the lack of horsepower and energy availability led Leclerc and his engineers to change the delivery strategy during the session, but ending up with an irregular and unpredictable energy release that penalized the Monegasque instead of helping him progress. In general, however, the difficulties under the hood were also felt on the Dutch track. The other point, more current in this qualifying, was precisely the difficulty in fully exploiting the potential of the soft tire on a single lap. A theme perhaps less frequent compared to some past seasons, but which on these occasions tends to have a significant weight, given the compactness of the leading group, often separated by just a few thousandths at the finish line. The car’s balance was absolutely good, and the data show that the new floor works, better distributing the aerodynamic load along the car body and giving solidity to the rear without compromising the good front end that the SF26 has had since birth. The lack of power in the key points of the track and the lack of grip of the softs not perfectly in the window, however, set an insurmountable limit for both drivers. Hamilton, with a good last lap, managed at least to get ahead of his teammate. The third row, however, lays the foundation for a rather uphill race, given the difficulty in overtaking seen in the Sprint, although Ferrari will likely have a pace on par with the leaders.
Great Norris, but McLaren has some more unknowns in the race
Pole went to an excellent Lando Norris, who continues to prove himself a protagonist of a stellar season, able to make the most of the main characteristics of his McLaren: a very strong front in fast corners and a good warm-up of the tire that allows him to hide, at least on a single lap, the difficulties of lack of downforce at low speeds, in slow corners. The difficulties for the reigning World Champion will come tomorrow, when Norris will have to manage a car that has not shown the same tire management as Mercedes and Ferrari, an aspect that, starting with a full fuel load, could be felt a lot in the first stints. If there is one quality Norris has historically shown is precisely a great ability to manage tires and car in complicated conditions (like today’s qualifying after all) and it will therefore be very interesting to see what performance he will be able to find in the race. If he is still leading at the end of the first lap the best strategy for the Woking team will be to defend by always anticipating the opponents’ moves: a technique not always easy to apply during the race.
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Mercedes stiffer and favored, but internal fight can help Norris
Behind Norris will start the two Mercedes, with Russell ahead of an Antonelli who was even too cautious, since his lap, from the exit of turn 3 onwards, would have been pole, but spoiled by a first sector about 2 tenths slower than his potential due to fear of a track that was starting to get damp from the beginning of rain in the last minutes. Mercedes shows data more in line with the competition in fast corners, probably showing a stiffening of the suspension setup in view of the race to be run with a full fuel load. The Brackley car continues to favor a “V” driving style in the long corners of the central sector, with a very solid rear and an energy management level superior to the competition, which allows the two drivers to cap their speed on the final straight before the finish line at speeds on average 6-8 km/h higher than the McLarens and even 13-15 km/h higher than the Ferraris.
Race far from decided despite the track
The race therefore remains an unknown with the two Mercedes favored on paper, but who, beyond the start, will not have an easy life on a track where overtaking is almost impossible. The fact that Russell and Antonelli start side by side is also a high-risk situation in terms of the title fight, with the two possibly bothering each other to the advantage of Norris ahead. The Ferraris would probably have at least a podium potential, but the starting position makes everything very complicated. The Zandvoort track does not allow overtaking, but it can certainly reserve many surprises: the weather is the first, but beware of Safety Cars on such a narrow track and with the two planned stops the intervention of the safety car can really turn the situation upside down. In short, despite the track, the race is not yet absolutely decided.
